{"id":27088,"date":"2009-04-29T20:56:48","date_gmt":"2009-04-29T20:56:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/transinfo.pl\/x\/?post_type=infotrans&p=27088"},"modified":"2025-01-20T06:15:55","modified_gmt":"2025-01-20T05:15:55","slug":"prognoza-ulc-na-2009-r-o-8-pasazerow-mniej","status":"publish","type":"infotrans","link":"https:\/\/transinfo.pl\/x\/infotrans\/prognoza-ulc-na-2009-r-o-8-pasazerow-mniej\/","title":{"rendered":"Prognoza ULC na 2009 r.: o 8% pasa\u017cer\u00f3w mniej"},"content":{"rendered":"
Urz\u0105d Lotnictwa Cywilnego zaktualizowa\u0142 prognoz\u0119 rozwoju rynku lotniczego w Polsce. Obecna aktualizacja jest ju\u017c trzeci\u0105 wykonan\u0105 przez Urz\u0105d Lotnictwa Cywilnego. Zosta\u0142a wykonana na podstawie danych uzyskanych od zarz\u0105dzaj\u0105cych lotniskami, wska\u017aników makroekonomicznych oraz innych determinantów publikowanych przez instytucje krajowe i mi\u0119dzynarodowe. Dynamicznie zmieniaj\u0105ca si\u0119 sytuacja gospodarki \u015bwiatowej, a tak\u017ce samej bran\u017cy lotniczej powoduje, i\u017c ULC nie wyklucza ewentualnej korekty prognozy w trakcie trwania bie\u017c\u0105cego roku. Z wykonanej przez ULC analizy wynika, i\u017c w roku 2009 polskie porty lotnicze obs\u0142u\u017c\u0105 \u0142\u0105cznie oko\u0142o19 mln pasa\u017cerów, co spowoduje spadek w stosunku do roku 2008 o oko\u0142o 8%. W kolejnych latach dynamika wzrostu powinna przyj\u0105\u0107 warto\u015bci dodatnie osi\u0105gaj\u0105c maksymalny pu\u0142ap na poziomie oko\u0142o 10% w latach 2011-2013. Zdaniem Urz\u0119du Lotnictwa Cywilnego po tych latach nast\u0105pi dalsza stabilizacja rozwoju polskiego lotnictwa cywilnego. Powinien zosta\u0107 równie\u017c zneutralizowany dodatni efekt bazy spowodowany obecnymi zawirowaniami gospodarczymi na \u015bwiecie. ULC szacuje, \u017ce ruch pasa\u017cerski do roku 2030 b\u0119dzie rós\u0142 \u015brednio w tempie 5,5% rocznie. W ci\u0105gu najbli\u017cszych kilku lat wci\u0105\u017c najbardziej dynamicznie rozwija\u0107 si\u0119 b\u0119d\u0105 porty regionalne. W odniesieniu do liczby operacji handlowych, ULC s\u0105dzi, \u017ce ich dynamika w roku 2009 wyniesie oko\u0142o – 7,5%, co spowoduje, i\u017c przewo\u017anicy operuj\u0105cy do\/z polskich portów lotniczych wykonaj\u0105 ich \u0142\u0105cznie niespe\u0142na 240 tys., a \u015brednia dynamika do roku 2030 wyniesie 2,8%. W roku 2009 wi\u0119kszo\u015b\u0107 operacji b\u0119dzie wykonywana z\/do portów regionalnych (oko\u0142o 56%). Zdaniem Urz\u0119du Lotnictwa Cywilnego organizacja przez Polsk\u0119 oraz Ukrain\u0119 Mistrzostw Europy w pi\u0142ce no\u017cnej w 2012 r. tylko nieznacznie wp\u0142ynie na ogóln\u0105 dynamik\u0119 ruchu. Wp\u0142yw ten b\u0119dzie zauwa\u017calny, ale w obliczu znacznie bardziej rozwini\u0119tego rynku w tym czasie, dodatkowe oko\u0142o 0,5 –0,7 mln obs\u0142u\u017conych pasa\u017cerów nie przyniesie znacznego wzrostu dynamiki. Nale\u017cy jednak zaznaczy\u0107, i\u017c pasa\u017cerowie ci, a tak\u017ce wykonane wtedy operacje, skumuluj\u0105 si\u0119 w bardzo w\u0105skim przedziale czasowym, co z pewno\u015bci\u0105 spowoduje utrudnienia w funkcjonowaniu poszczególnych portów lotniczych. <\/div>\n
Projekcja ruchu lotniczego w polskich portach lotniczych do roku 2030<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
 <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
liczba pasa\u017cerów<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
dynamika operacje pasa\u017cerskie<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
dynamika<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2008<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
20 657 754<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
8,06%                      259 533<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
4,33%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2009<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
18 942 191<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
-8,30%                     239 780<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
-7,61%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2010<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
20 399 801<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
7,70%                      249 547<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
4,07%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2011<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
22 325 283<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
9,44%                      266 575<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
6,82%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2012<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
24 482 560<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
9,66%                      285 287<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
7,02%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2013<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
26 796 675<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
9,45%                      302 576<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
6,06%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2014<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
29 160 142<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
8,82%                       315 284<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
4,20%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2015<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
31 732 066<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
8,82%                      328 526<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
4,20%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2016<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
33 398 000<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
5,25%                      336 739<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,50%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2017<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
35 151 395<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
5,25%                      345 158<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,50%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2018<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
36 996 843<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
5,25%                      353 787<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,50%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2019<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
38 939 177<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
5,25%                      362 631<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,50%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2020<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
40 983 484<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
5,25%                      371 697<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,50%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2021<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
43 135 117<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
5,25%                      380 990<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,50%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2022<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
45 399 711<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
5,25%                      390 514<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,50%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2023<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
47 783 195<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
5,25%                      400 277<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,50%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2024<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
50 291 813<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
5,25%                      410 284<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,50%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2025<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
52 932 133<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
5,25%                      420 541<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,50%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2026<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
55 155 283<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
4,20%                      428 952<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,00%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2027<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
57 471 805<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
4,20%                      437 531<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,00%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2028<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
59 885 621<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
4,20%                      446 282<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,00%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2029<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
62 400 817<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
4,20%                      455 207<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,00%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
2030<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
65 021 651<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
4,20%                      464 311<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
2,00%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\u0179ród\u0142o: Urz\u0105d Lotnictwa Cywilnego, Warszawa, kwiecie\u0144 2009<\/div>\n
5 lat lotniczego boomu<\/strong><\/div>\n
Przez 5 lat ponad dwukrotnie wzrós\u0142 ruch lotniczy w Polsce. Po wej\u015bciu Polski do UE pojawi\u0142o si\u0119 w naszym kraju mnóstwo tanich linii oferuj\u0105cych niedrogie po\u0142\u0105czenia. Spowodowa\u0142o to szybki spadek cen biletów. Wzrost liczby podró\u017cnych nast\u0105pi\u0142 szczególnie w portach regionalnych. Przed 2004 rokiem LOT lekcewa\u017cy\u0142 wi\u0119kszo\u015b\u0107 lotnisk regionalnych. Po wej\u015bciu do UE rynek wymusi\u0142 ekspansj\u0119 na porty regionalne. W 2005 r. polskie lotniska obs\u0142u\u017cy\u0142y ponad 11,5 mln pasa\u017cerów, o 31 proc. wi\u0119cej ni\u017c w 2004. W 2006 r. by\u0142o to ju\u017c blisko 15,4 mln pasa\u017cerów, w 2007 r. – ponad 19 mln, a w 2008 r. ok. 20 mln. Wiele u\u0142atwie\u0144 dla pasa\u017cerów nast\u0105pi\u0142o po wej\u015bciu Polski do strefy Schengen. Pasa\u017cer wylatuj\u0105cy do krajów strefy nie musi ju\u017c sta\u0107 w kolejce do odprawy paszportowej. Eksperci szacuj\u0105, \u017ce do 2020 r. ruch lotniczy podwoi si\u0119 w stosunku do obecnego. <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":27089,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[26],"tags":[45,123,2696],"class_list":["post-27088","infotrans","type-infotrans","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-przewoznicy","tag-lotnisko","tag-pasazer","tag-ulc"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPrognoza ULC na 2009 r.: o 8% pasa\u017cer\u00f3w mniej - TransInfo Archiwum<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/transinfo.pl\/x\/infotrans\/prognoza-ulc-na-2009-r-o-8-pasazerow-mniej\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pl_PL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Prognoza ULC na 2009 r.: o 8% pasa\u017cer\u00f3w mniej\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Urz\u0105d Lotnictwa Cywilnego zaktualizowa\u0142 prognoz\u0119 rozwoju rynku lotniczego w Polsce. 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